When it comes to selling or buying a pharmacy, one of the most common questions I hear is: “Is now a good time?”
It’s a fair question — especially given the endless headlines about interest rate changes, government policy shifts, global economic uncertainty, or health sector reforms. Vendors and buyers alike often assume these external forces will have a direct and dramatic impact on pharmacy values. As a result, many try to “time the market” — holding out for the perfect conditions to buy or sell.
But here’s the reality: the factors that dominate the news rarely move the needle on pharmacy prices as much as you might think.
What the Data Tells Us
Over the past five years, the pharmacy sector has weathered its share of disruption:
- A global pandemic (COVID-19)
- Interest rate increases
- The introduction of 60-day dispensing (60DD)
- Shifts in global trade and politics
And yet, when we analysed data from 450 pharmacy sales over that period, these factors — individually and collectively — had surprisingly little effect on sale prices.
In fact, the real-world outcome was often the opposite of what many expected. When economic uncertainty or regulatory changes made vendors nervous, fewer pharmacies were listed for sale. But buyer demand stayed relatively steady, as did access to funding. Fewer listings, paired with the same number of buyers, created an environment where competition intensified — driving sale prices up, not down.
Why Pharmacy Demand Stays Strong
One of the key reasons buyer demand has remained so stable — even through periods of economic uncertainty — is that pharmacies are widely regarded as a safe and resilient investment.
Essential healthcare services are always in demand, which makes pharmacies less exposed to the ups and downs of discretionary spending, consumer confidence, or short-term economic cycles.
This consistent demand for pharmacy businesses, combined with stable access to funding, helps explain why market prices hold steady — and why the real variable to watch is the number of listings, not the latest headline.
The Single Biggest Driver: Supply
In simple terms, pharmacy prices follow one key rule: supply and demand.
And while buyer demand and finance availability have both proven to be remarkably stable, the number of pharmacies on the market fluctuates. When fewer pharmacies are listed, buyers compete harder. This often results in sale prices exceeding the bank’s valuation — a trend we’ve seen again and again during periods when vendors assumed the market was “weak.”
So, while it may feel counterintuitive, the best time to sell is often when the wider economic or political climate feels uncertain. Why? Because fewer sellers are willing to list, and motivated buyers are left to compete for limited opportunities.
What This Means for You
If you’re considering a sale, focusing on macro headlines or trying to predict interest rate cycles may do more harm than good. Instead, pay attention to the supply of comparable pharmacies on the market.
A quieter market can work in your favour, especially when demand remains steady — and history suggests it usually does.
So before you decide to wait for the “perfect” conditions, remember: pharmacy prices are less about timing the economy, and more about understanding the market’s current stock level. Often, the strongest sale results happen when the news is telling everyone to sit still.
If you’d like help understanding the current market conditions or advice on when the right time might be for your particular pharmacy, feel free to reach out for some more personalised insights.
Written by Jack Brown, NSW State Manager – AP Group
AP Group are the leading pharmacy experts in Australia, helping hundreds of pharmacists into ownership every year – our team can help with sourcing finance for your purchase, as well as providing the right legal advice to help you navigate the process.
We connect existing pharmacy owners with over 5000 ready and eager investors via our cutting-edge online Data Room. Our Data Room keeps confidential listing data secure and allows buyers to make informed decisions on each of our pharmacies for sale.
About the Author:
Don’t let the suit fool you. On the weekends you’ll find Jack fly fishing, camping with his kids, rock pooling or cheering for the Tiges (a shame, we know). And just like you’ll find Jack excelling in several outdoor hobbies, you’ll also find he’s excelled across several industries in various roles. From owning small businesses to running bars to working as a strategic consultant for ING — Jack is a man of many talents.
Having bought, built and sold several small businesses over the last 15 years, Jack knows a thing or two about the mechanics of business — and he draws on this experience to help you buy or sell your pharmacy with confidence.
Business aside, Jack has thrived in several senior roles. He worked as a Strategic Consultant for ING (responsible for assessing the existing asset portfolio, feasibility analysis’ and strategic modelling). He also worked as a Strategist and Project Manager at Right Angle Studios, responsible for strategic insights that would inform the overall business strategy. See we told you, a man of many talents.